Author(s)

Chunyi Yu ¹, Yiran Lv ¹

Affiliation(s)

¹ School of Intelligent Construction, Chongqing Jianzhu College, Chongqing, 400072, China

Corresponding Author

Chunyi Yu

ABSTRACT

Under the complex social environment of accelerating urbanization and deep adjustment of interest pattern, mass incidents of major projects are on the rise, and the traditional static risk assessment model is difficult to meet the needs of dynamic risk evolution. In this study, the whole chain risk identification and prediction mechanism is constructed, which integrates social network analysis (SNA), natural language processing (NLP), system dynamics (SD) and agent-based modeling (ABM), and the interaction network of stakeholders is deconstructed by SNA to identify key influencers and vulnerable nodes. By tracking the emotional evolution and topic changes of public opinion through NLP, this study aims to capture early risk signals and predict potential issues. The SD-ABM fusion model is constructed, which simulates the accumulation of public dissatisfaction and policy response feedback at the macro level, and depicts the herd effect and social psychological amplification mechanism of individual protest decision-making at the micro level, forming a "recognition-early warning-response" closed loop. Taking the PX chemical project in X city as a case, the empirical study based on 25,443 pieces of social media data and 200 household questionnaires shows that the model accurately predicts the incident probability (the baseline scenario reaches 68%), and effectively evaluates the differentiated effects of intervention strategies such as popular science propaganda and economic compensation. The research verifies the ability of the fusion model to capture nonlinear risk evolution and sudden disturbance, and provides a forward-looking decision support tool for the social risk management of major projects from passive response to active prediction.

KEYWORDS

Risk Identification, Prediction Mechanism, Major Engineering Group Events, Complex Social Environment, Social Network Analysis, System Dynamics, Agent-Based Modelling

CITE THIS PAPER

Chunyi Yu, Yiran Lv, Study on Risk Identification and Prediction Mechanism of Major Engineering Group Events in Complex Social Environment. Journal of Civil Engineering and Urban Planning (2025) Vol. 7: 34-40. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/jceup.2025.070306.

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