Author(s)

Qilian Dai ¹, Ying Fang ¹, Jianxin Yu ¹

Affiliation(s)

¹ Xuhai College, China University of mining and technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, 221008, China

Corresponding Author

Qilian Dai

ABSTRACT

Aiming at the prediction and estimation of coal price, this paper selects the data related to coal price, and establishes a coal price forecasting model to predict coal price. In view of the existing detection of coal in China and the influence of other factors in the international market, we first consult the analytical literature on coal prices and forecasts, on the basis of which six indicators are summed up, and the factors of coal prices are sorted. Then first of all, according to the feasibility and authority of the collected data, choose Qinhuangdao coal price, import price, Qinhuangdao coal stock raw coal output. In the short term, the prediction selection exponential smoothing method will get the results of inventory and other related indexes through spss operation, and then select the optimal solution to determine the forecast price. Then in the forecast of week and month, we choose to establish multiple linear regression and add a number of indices related to Qinhuangdao thermal coal price for fitting operation, that is, the time forecast of Qinhuangdao thermal coal price.

KEYWORDS

Coal price forecasting model, Exponential smoothing method, Multiple linear regression model, SPSS

CITE THIS PAPER

Qilian Dai, Ying Fang, Jianxin Yu, Research on Coal Price Forecast Based on Exponential Smoothing Forecast and Multiple Linear Regression. Financial Engineering and Risk Management (2021) 4: 59-63. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/ferm.2021.040612.

REFERENCES

[1] Si Lingjun. Study on the influencing factors of coal price fluctuation [J]. Modern Economic Information, 2018 (01): 350.
[2] Zhu Jimao. Analysis and Forecast of influencing factors of Coal Price in China [J]. China Coal, 2017. 43 (11): 20-24.
[3] Wang Wen, Li Guodong. Study on influencing factors of Coal Price in China based on Analytic hierarchy process [J]. Operation and Management, 2016 (12): 87-90.
[4] Wang Yanwei, Jing Xiaozhen. Empirical Analysis of Coal Price trend and its influencing factors in China [J]. Price Theory and practice, 2016 (06): 114117.
[5] Yang Jing. Multi-factor analysis of coal price fluctuation [J]. Knowledge economy, 2015 (14): 81-82.

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