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Prediction of Terrorist Attack based on Advanced Terror Black Box Model and Grey System Theory

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DOI: 10.23977/meet.2019.93775


Zhibo Nie, Liqiang Liu, Minle Wang, Hang Tian

Corresponding Author

Zhibo Nie


Regular demand for understanding "the three forces" terrorist attacks, the "Advanced Terrorism Black Box Model (ATB) "was established, analyzed the terrorism resource flow input and the terrorism product flow output stationarity , pointed out the rule of terrorist attack time follow regular impulse,which use grey theory to predict, and the time response sequence of the terrorism event occurred in a certain region of China from 2013 to 2015 is obtained.The two breaking times after the “3•01 terrorist attacks”of kunming railway station in 2014 were predicted, the prediction error with real terrorist attacks time is 3 to 10 days, that showed ATB effectivity and availability of the model and method,and the anti-terrorist actions before 2014 failed to destroy the terrorist foundation,indicated that society may suffer a larger scale of terrorist attacks after a period of security illusion..


Advanced Terrorist Black Box (Atb), Grey System Theory, Terrorist Attack, Rule, Prediction

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