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Demand Forecasting of Short-life-cycle Products Based on Improved Generalized Norton-Bass Model

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DOI: 10.23977/fmess.2019.061


Jie Chen, Weilian Wang

Corresponding Author

Jie Chen


The shorter life cycle of products brings great challenges to the demand forecasting. This paper took a research on the value deteriorating short-life-cycle products. An improved Generalized Norton-Bass model was built for demand forecasting with consideration of the seasonal factor, price reduction and consumer behaviors in the market where multi-generational products coexist. Finally, a numerical experiment of three-generation MP3 products’ sales was given, which proved that the improved GNB model could well forecast the demand of short-life-cycle products. And the analysis of the forecasting result was given.


Short-life-cycle product, demand forecasting, improved Generalized Norton-Bass model

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