Author(s)

Yanda Chen, Jun Li, Huabo Sun

Corresponding Author

Yanda Chen

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to predict the risk probability of the tail strike event in A320 fleet by calculating the minimum distance between the ground and the tailskid of each flight during takeoff phase. By studying the distributing disciplinarian of the measured values of tail strike, we find that the sample data subjected to different normal distributions since the aircrafts are equipped with different types of engines. Then we can obtain the tail strike event probability according to the probability density function of each sample. The prediction results can provide reference for airlines to manage the risk of tail strike events, and to decide whether it is necessary to propose targeted training plans or not according to the possibility of incidents and the severity of the consequences.

KEYWORDS

Tail strike, normal distribution, risk prediction