Author(s)

Hao Sun, Chun Wang, Mingliang Chen

Corresponding Author

Hao Sun

ABSTRACT

Civil aviation of China experienced a continuous and rapid development in last decades. Aircraft fleets, flight activities and airlines increased at a high speed. A new safety record was achieved. The aim of this paper is to assess the risks after the rapid development. Industry development data and unsafe occurrences data of transport aviation and general aviation are collected. Rates, types, periods, victim numbers, and fluctuations of accident and incident are compared. A Series of relationship among accidents and incidents, accidents and fatal accidents, occurrences and human-factor occurrences, etc. are analyzed. Contributions to the risks from industry development and human factors are discussed. A quantitative model is developed and used in risk assessment. Based on the outputs of the quantitative model, it is concluded that China civil aviation is in a stage of high risks.

KEYWORDS

Development, safety, data analysis, risk assessment