Author(s)

Yan Zhang, Xiaodan Hou, and Kaixi Ji

Corresponding Author

Yan Zhang

ABSTRACT

With the improvement of people's living standards and quality, playgrounds need to not only maximize their own profitability as a strategic goal in terms of fare sales and amusement facilities construction, but also need to meet consumer demand for maximum entertainment utility. Based on these two goals, this article uses the daily number of tourists in 2018 as the base period to make consumption behavior and fare predictions, and gives related recommendations. This article first uses the exponential smoothing method to calculate the initial forecast of the number of summer vacation and National Day visitors, and then combine the data from the first five months of the biennium to find the actual forecast value and determine the date with the largest number of people. Then build a gray forecasting model to get the initial forecast value, and finally get the forecast result of the number of visitors on August 5, 2019. Then use AHP method to explore the best scheme to play under the conditions of purchasing a ticket. Finally, compare the pass price and the total cost of the project from the perspective of the operator, and then combine the actual situation to determine that the setting of the ticket is necessary.

KEYWORDS

Average waiting time and queue number, utility maximization, exponential smoothing method, grey prediction method, analytic hierarchy process