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Prediction of Road Traffic Accident Death Holl Based on Time Series

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DOI: 10.23977/csic.2018.0913

Author(s)

Xie Huawei

Corresponding Author

Xie Huawei

ABSTRACT

In order to study the change rule of road traffic accident, and to better evaluate the road traffic safety, road traffic planning and accident prevention and control, the research work is carried out. In this paper, the time series analysis method is adopted to analyze the trend rule in the time series of the road traffic accident death holl. In addition, data preprocessing and model identification and testing were carried out. Finally, ARMA (1,1) prediction model was established. The number of road traffic accident death holl in China from 2003 to 2015 was analyzed and predicted. The results show that the predicted trend is consistent with the actual trend. The maximum error rate is 2.02%, and the comprehensive error rate is only 0.60%. The accuracy is high and the prediction effect is satisfactory. The time series analysis and prediction method highlights the role of time factors in the prediction. It is more suitable for short and medium term forecasting without considering the influence of specific external factors.

KEYWORDS

Arma Model, Time Series, Road Traffic Accident, Death Toll, Prediction

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