Author(s)

Haoxuan Li

Corresponding Author

Haoxuan Li

ABSTRACT

The study forecasts China's 2030 copper consumption and estimates various copper supply indicators by regression analysis and normal lifetime distribution to construct supply scenarios under different conditions. The BEKK-GARCH model is employed to investigate the volatility spillover effects between futures and spot markets, due to the intricate global economic climate of recent years, which has caused commodity prices to become excessively volatile. A coupling analysis is conducted to conclude that China should choose a trend reduction strategy for its future import planning. Meanwhile, the volatility of futures and spot markets is asymmetric and aggregated, so attention should be paid to the price volatility anomalies brought about by supply changes.

KEYWORDS

Dual circulation, Supply and demand volume, Price volatility spillover, Commodities, Copper