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  4. Vol 10, Issue 2, 2026

Research on Early Warning of Extreme Price Fluctuations in Technology Stocks Based on the ARIMA Model

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DOI: 10.23977/acss.2026.100210 | Downloads: 0 | Views: 47

Author(s)

Jingyi Chen 1

Affiliation(s)

1 University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1, Canada

Corresponding Author

Jingyi Chen

ABSTRACT

With the continuous digitalization of capital markets, technology stocks have gradually become a major focus for investors and financial regulators due to their strong growth potential, high valuation flexibility, and significant market attention. However, the prices of technology stocks are often influenced by multiple factors, including the macroeconomic environment, industrial policy changes, corporate innovation capability, market sentiment, and unexpected external events. As a result, sharp price swings may occur within a short period, sometimes even leading to extreme market risks. To improve the identification of abnormal price movements and enhance risk warning capability, this study takes the time series of technology stock prices as the research object and introduces the ARIMA model to analyze and forecast stock price trends. Meanwhile, an early warning mechanism for extreme price fluctuations is constructed by combining forecasting errors, volatility thresholds, and abnormal deviation levels. Through stationarity testing, differencing, model identification, parameter estimation, and forecasting analysis of historical price data, the applicability of the ARIMA model in short-term prediction and abnormal fluctuation identification for technology stock prices is verified. The results indicate that the ARIMA model can effectively capture trend changes and short-term volatility characteristics in technology stock price series, providing quantitative support for investor risk management, market supervision, and financial technology applications.

KEYWORDS

ARIMA model; technology stocks; extreme price fluctuations; risk warning; time series analysis

CITE THIS PAPER

Jingyi Chen. Research on Early Warning of Extreme Price Fluctuations in Technology Stocks Based on the ARIMA Model. Advances in Computer, Signals and Systems (2026). Vol. 10, No. 2, 87-97. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/acss.2026.100210.

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