Author(s)

Yang Shen

Corresponding Author

Yang Shen

ABSTRACT

Cities in the Yangtze River Delta region of China are the core and important bearers of regional economic development. Based on the economic growth theory, the economic growth models of eight trillion GDP cities in the Yangtze River Delta region are estimated and established under the assumptions of production factors and inflationary change paths, and economic data from 1996 to 2020 are used to forecast the total economic scale and growth trend of each city up to 2035. The results show that (1) the constructed economic growth model has a high fitting ability, and according to the current economic growth path, the speed of each city to achieve the set economic goals mainly depends on the rate of capital accumulation under the stability of labor supply; (2) if the growth rate of fixed capital accumulation in each city can be maintained at an average annual rate of 3%-5%, the sum of economic aggregates of the eight cities will likely reach 30 trillion yuan in 2035.If the growth rate of fixed capital accumulation in each city can be maintained at an average of 3%-5%, the total economic volume of the eight cities will reach 30 trillion yuan in 2035, among which, Shanghai's total economic volume may exceed 5 trillion yuan around 2024, Suzhou's GDP may reach 3 trillion yuan in 2030, Nanjing and Hangzhou are expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and Nantong, Wuxi, Ningbo and Hefei may achieve 2 trillion yuan in 2030-2035. -Nantong, Wuxi, Ningbo and Hefei will probably achieve the target of RMB 2 trillion in 2035. In order to achieve the set economic growth target as early as possible, the cities in the Yangtze River Delta region should accelerate the synergistic development, expand the scale of regional effective investment, stabilize the labor supply, and strengthen the innovation drive.

KEYWORDS

economic growth, urban economy, economic forecast, Yangtze River Delta region