Author(s)

Xiaogang Zhu ¹

Affiliation(s)

¹ School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

Corresponding Author

Xiaogang Zhu

ABSTRACT

Emergency fiscal budgeting is a core component of disaster governance. It supports disaster response and recovery, but it also shapes prevention and preparedness before losses occur. This study examines whether emergency fiscal budgeting reduces disaster impacts and whether fiscal autonomy strengthens that effect. Using provincial panel data from China for 2005-2016, the analysis employs a two-way fixed-effects model. Disaster impact is measured by the population affected by natural disasters. Emergency fiscal budgeting is proxied by budgeted expenditure on natural disaster living assistance, and fiscal autonomy is measured by the ratio of local budgetary revenue to local budgetary expenditure. The results show a stable negative association between emergency fiscal budgeting and disaster impacts. Provinces with stronger emergency fiscal budgeting tend to have smaller affected populations. The interaction term between emergency fiscal budgeting and fiscal autonomy is also negative, indicating that fiscal autonomy strengthens the disaster risk reduction effect of emergency fiscal budgeting. Further analysis for the central and western regions yields a similar pattern, and robustness checks using alternative sample periods do not alter the main findings. These results suggest that disaster impacts are shaped not only by hazard exposure, but also by fiscal preparation and local fiscal conditions. The findings provide empirical support for strengthening ex ante disaster-related budgeting and for improving the institutional setting in which local governments use fiscal resources for disaster risk reduction.

KEYWORDS

Emergency Fiscal Budgeting; Disaster Risk Reduction; Fiscal Autonomy; Disaster Governance

CITE THIS PAPER

Xiaogang Zhu. Emergency Fiscal Budgeting and Disaster Risk Reduction: The Moderating Role of Fiscal Autonomy. Social Security and Administration Management (2026). Vol. 7, No. 1, 13-24. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/socsam.2026.070103.

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