Author(s)

Wanling Yang ¹, Jinyan Zhang ¹, Honghui Zou ²

Affiliation(s)

¹ School of Geological Engineering and Surveying and Mapping, Changan University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, 710000
² School of Transportation Engineering, Changan University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, 710000

Corresponding Author

Wanling Yang

ABSTRACT

At present, the global food market is in a very fragile stability: even in a wealthy area, there will be food shortages. It is important for us to optimize the existing food system. In this paper, the food system is simplified to a system composed of five food structures {x_1,…,x_5} such as soybeans, cereals, milk, pork, and vegetables. We establish a multi-obje ctive optimization model from the four aspects of efficiency, profitability, fairness and sustainability; Then, using the historical data, the average value of the total population, rural population, an d agricultural land area of each country in the next five years is predicted through the gray predic tion model. Import the predicted data into the calculation of the multi-objective optimization mod el, when the objective function reaches the global optimal solution F=208.322, the optimal food structure {x_1^*,…,x_5^*} of each country in the next five years can be obtained. For example, the opti mal food structure in China is {1668.6,13557.8,12514.9,3128.7,16686.5}(" Unit: " 10,000" tons "), w hich increase or decrease 30.2%, 3.0%, 19.5%, -15.8%, 45.6% compared with the current food structure. Finally, a multiple linear regression model was established to consider the five influencing factors of each countries’ agricultural input, pesticide residues, chemical fertilizers, farmers’ arable land area, and national GDP (all predicted by the gray prediction model) to calculate the future annual changes in the food structure v_i, and thus calculate the change time T (The time of China is 4.79 years)

KEYWORDS

Multi-objective Optimization, Multiple linear Regression, Bene fits and Costs, Food safety

CITE THIS PAPER

Wanling Yang, Jinyan Zhang, Honghui Zou, Analysis of changing factors of Grain system based on Mathematical Modeling. Agricultural & Forestry Economics and Management (2021) Vol. 4: 11-15. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/agrfem.2021.040103

REFERENCES

[1] Zhang Xingwen. Multi-objective optimization model for fair distribution of emergency supplies under fuzzy conditions [J]. Logistics Technology, 2019, 42(05): 20-24. 
[2] Su Xing, Wang Deli. Research on the influencing factors of my country's food output [J]. Tianjin Agricultural Sciences, 2020, 26 (12): 41-45+50. 
[3] Yi Xinghua, He Miao. Evaluation of Agricultural Ecological Environment in China's Main Food Producing Areas [J]. Hubei Agricultural Sciences, 2021, 60(02): 161-166+188. 
[4] Cultivated land area, agricultural population data and total population: https://data.worl dbank.org.cn/ 
[5] Import and export prices and retail prices of the five types of foods involved in the model: http://www.fao.org/prices/zh/
[6] Annual GDP of each country: https://www.kylc.com/stats/global/yearly_per_country/g _gdp/chn-usa.html 
[7] Five factors affecting food growth in each country in the model: http://www.fao.org/faostat/zh/#data

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