Author(s)

Fei Wang, Qinghe Wang, Wenjuan Cai, Wen Fu, Meng Wang, Qingchang Wang

Corresponding Author

Fei Wang

ABSTRACT

Climate change has become a serious problem and has even been proved to have influenced a country’s stability. In this paper, country’s stability evaluation and prediction system is presented. A comprehensive index named Stability Index to measure a country’s stability is produced with the help of Analytic Hierarchy Process. To explain climate change’s impact on Stability Index, 4 different forecast models is selected from Grey Relational Model and Time Series Analysis Method to predict other indicators respectively under the assumption of certain indicators from environmental aspects unchanged. The Cubic Exponential Smoothing Method from Time Series Analysis Method is adopt to predict American Stability Index in the future and several intervention plans and establish System Dynamics Model through the relations between the indicators is proposed. Results showed that country’s Stability Index can be predicted and intervened, the state can increase Stability Index by investing money through the intervention plans proposed in this paper.

KEYWORDS

Country’s stability, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Grey Model, Time Series Analysis Method, System Dynamics Model