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Global Sea Level Forecast Based on Markov Model

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DOI: 10.23977/ESAC2020034


Xue Qu, Yingying Wang, Heng Zhang

Corresponding Author

Xue Qu


In recent years, due to global warming and rising sea levels, some island countries are in danger of being submerged and gradually disappearing. The inhabitants of these island countries will also become environmental displaced persons (EDP) as a result of their loss of territory. In response to this problem, we take the Maldives and Kiribati as examples to establish a series of models to discuss how to resettle these EDP in terms of the number of EDP and the protection for their human rights and cultural heritage. First, we build a Markov Model to predict the average global sea levels in each year in the future, and then calculate based on the current altitude of the island nation, calculate how many years the island nation will disappear completely, that is, how many years it can survive. Then, using statistics, we built the Population Prediction Model of Maldives and Kiribati to predict the population in the year when the island country will be completely submerged, and divide the predicted total population by the number of years that the island country will survive, we can calculate how many people should migrate each year to become EDP, that is, the number of people at risk.


The number of EDP; global warming; rising sea levels

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