Author(s)

Yanshuo Li ¹

Affiliation(s)

¹ School of Economics, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing, China

Corresponding Author

Yanshuo Li

ABSTRACT

To address the issue of microgrid dispatch being susceptible to prediction bias under conditions of high wind and solar power integration, a risk-economic dispatch method based on Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and Multi-Strategy Adaptive Differential Evolution (MSDE) is proposed. First, a first-order autoregressive error model is used to describe the temporal correlation of wind and solar power prediction errors, generating multiple renewable energy output scenarios. Second, with energy storage charging and discharging power as the core decision variable, a risk adjustment objective function composed of expected operating cost and conditional value-at-risk is constructed, comprehensively considering grid interaction cost, micro gas turbine operating cost, diesel generator operating cost, carbon emission cost, energy storage degradation cost, and load shedding penalty. Finally, elite-guided mutation, adaptive parameter adjustment, local Gaussian search, and oppositional learning strategies are employed to improve the search efficiency of the differential evolution algorithm in multi-scenario dispatch. The 24-hour simulation results show that the proposed method achieves a risk adjustment target value of 3403.96 yuan, which is lower than that of the standard difference evolutionary algorithm and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, while maintaining the energy storage state of charge (SOC) within the allowable range. Sensitivity analysis further shows that as the wind and solar forecast errors increase, the conditional risk value and cost fluctuations rise significantly, indicating that the proposed method can effectively balance the economic efficiency and uncertainty risks of microgrid operation.

KEYWORDS

Microgrids; Economic dispatch; Wind and solar uncertainties; Energy storage systems

CITE THIS PAPER

Yanshuo Li. Economic Dispatch of a Microgrid under Wind and Photovoltaic Uncertainty Based on Conditional Value-at-Risk and Multi-Strategy Adaptive Differential Evolution. Information Systems and Economics (2026). Vol. 7, No.1, 136-152. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/infse.2026.070115.

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